Executive Summary
Bucket Pot offers participants significantly better odds than traditional lotteries while supporting youth basketball. With 300 participants, the effective winning probability ranges from 0.7% to 1%, compared to traditional lottery odds of 0.0000007%.
Key Finding: A €1 entry in Bucket Pot gives you approximately 1,000 times better odds than a €1 lottery ticket, while 20% of all entries support youth basketball programs.
Basic Probability Calculation
Base Probability = 1 / Number of Participants
With 300 participants:
P(win) = 1/300 = 0.0033 = 0.33%
However, this assumes all participants make valid guesses within the winning range, which is not the case in practice.
The 10% Rule Impact
Winning Range Calculation
To win, your cart total must be between 100.1% and 110% of the final pot.
Example with €1,000 pot:
- Minimum winning guess: €1,001
- Maximum winning guess: €1,100
- Valid range: €99 (only 9.9% of pot value)
| Pot Size |
Winning Range |
Range Width |
| €500 |
€500.50 - €550 |
€49.50 |
| €1,000 |
€1,001 - €1,100 |
€99 |
| €2,000 |
€2,002 - €2,200 |
€198 |
| €5,000 |
€5,005 - €5,500 |
€495 |
Real-World Participation Analysis
Typical Distribution of 300 Participants
| Guess Category |
Percentage |
Number of Players |
| Way too high (>110%) |
30-40% |
90-120 players |
| Too low (<100.1%) |
10-15% |
30-45 players |
| Invalid/Wrong format |
20-30% |
60-90 players |
| Valid range guesses |
30-40% |
90-120 players |
Effective Probability = 1 / Valid Participants ≈ 1/100 = 1%
Strategic Advantage Through Pattern Recognition
Unlike pure games of chance, Bucket Pot rewards players who study participation patterns:
Skill Development Timeline
- Week 1-3: Random guessing ≈ 0.7% chance
- Week 4-8: Pattern recognition ≈ 2-3% chance
- Week 9+: Expert analysis ≈ 5%+ chance
Factors that improve odds:
- Studying previous week participation numbers
- Understanding community engagement patterns
- Recognizing rollover excitement effects
- Accounting for seasonal variations
Probability Comparison
Bucket Pot
1 in 100
€1 entry
1% chance
German Lotto 6/49
1 in 140M
€1.20 per field
0.0000007% chance
Scratch Cards
1 in 3-5
€1-5 per card
But mostly small prizes
Expected Value Calculation
For a typical week with 1,000 entries averaging €1.50 per entry:
Total Pot: €1,500
Winner receives: 80% = €1,200
Youth programs: 20% = €300
Expected Value per €1 entry:
EV = (€1,200 × 0.01) - €1 = €12 - €1 = €11
Plus: 100% guarantee of supporting youth basketball!
Conclusion
Bucket Pot offers a unique combination of:
- Favorable odds: 1,000x better than traditional lotteries
- Skill element: Odds improve with experience
- Community impact: Every entry supports youth programs
- Transparency: All funds tracked and distributed openly
Bottom Line: With 300 participants, you have approximately a 1% chance of winning €1,200+ worth of basketball gear for just €1, while guaranteeing support for youth basketball programs.